Myanmar’s Civil War — Mapping Armed Actors and Alliances

Since the February 2021 coup, Myanmar has descended into a multi-front civil war involving the military junta (Tatmadaw), pro-democracy resistance forces, and long-standing ethnic armed organizations.

The Tatmadaw and State Control

The Tatmadaw retains control over key urban centers, logistics corridors, and air power. Areas under military control are typically sustained through air superiority rather than territorial continuity, producing fragmented but resilient authority.

Resistance and Parallel Governance

The National Unity Government (NUG) coordinates loosely with People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) operating nationwide. These groups lack heavy equipment but compensate through local legitimacy, decentralized command, and territorial familiarity.

Ethnic Armed Organizations

Major actors include:

• Arakan Army (AA) — Estimated 30,000 fighters, active across Rakhine, Chin, and Shan states.
• Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) — 10,000–15,000 personnel, part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance.
• Shan State Army (SSA-South) — Controls border zones near Thailand, recently introduced mandatory conscription.

These groups frequently form tactical alliances against the junta while maintaining independent political objectives.

Key Armed Actors — Force Overview

Actor	Estimated Strength	Area of Operations	Alignment
Tatmadaw (Myanmar Army)	~300,000 (incl. reserves)	Nationwide (urban + airpower)	Military Junta
Myanmar Air Force (MAF)	~15,000	Nationwide	Tatmadaw
People’s Defence Forces (PDF)	60,000–80,000	Nationwide (rural)	NUG
Arakan Army (AA)	~30,000	Rakhine, Chin, Shan	Anti-junta
TNLA	10,000–15,000	Northern Shan	Three Brotherhood Alliance
MNDAA	~8,000	Kokang region	Three Brotherhood Alliance
SSA–South	~15,000	Shan–Thailand border	Neutral / transactional

Strategic Outlook

Myanmar’s conflict is no longer binary. It is a persistent, multi-actor war of attrition where control is fluid, ceasefires are transactional, and external influence remains decisive.